FINALLY! Football season is right around the corner and with it comes the Fantasy Football Draft. Many people believe you must have a great draft in order to win your league. As someone who lives and dies on the waiver wire, I disagree. However, there are decisions that can really help you and they come in rounds 3-5. Frankly, the first two rounds are a no-brainer. If you watched ANY football last year, you can guess which guys are going early, and for the most part, whether you get Doug Martin or LeSean McCoy, your team will be fine at RB. The hard part comes in the later rounds. And that's where I come in.
Before I get into player selections, keep in mind a couple things. First, I base these on a 12-team league. For scoring, assume RBs are the best option, 1 point for 10-yards either running, passing, or catching, and PPR. I also assume it's not a Keeper league. If you throw keepers into the mix, it can hose up selection order. Finally, I don't pay much attention to Bye Weeks. Yeah, you may have your top 2 or 3 players out the same week, but that is why you work the waiver wire. Also, I'd rather rack up a ton of points in the other 14 weeks than take a lesser player to score evenly all season long. Now, let's look at your draft options.
Round Three. Yeah, you are feeling good about the two guys on your roster so far, but what to do now? Here are my top 12 guys most likely to be sitting there when Round Three starts....
QB Cam Newton.CAR - 3,800 yrds, 19 TD, 12 INT last year. No matter how bad the Panthers are as a team, you can count on Cam to get your number.
WR Roddy White ATL - Even with Julio Jones on the roster, Matty Ice will look to Roddy as his #1 receiver. O-line has some issues but he should still get 1300 yrds and 8-10 TD's.
WR Andre Johnson HOU - No idea why he's dropping but perhaps its just a general lack of faith in the Texan Way. 1600 yards and 6 TDs is absolutely possible.
RB Stevan Ridley NE - I expect the Patriots to need some time to find new "favorite targets" for Tom Brady so that leaves Stevan to carry the load on the ground. Last year he boasted over 1200 rushing yards and 12 TDs. He should easily beat those numbers this year.
QB Tom Brady NE - The #4 QB of 2012 is not going to have an easy time of it this year. Without Welker or Hernandez, it's a crap shoot. However, I still believe Tommy Boy can make anyone look good. While your opposing managers let him slide, you should grab him up if he's still there in round 3.
WR Vincent Jackson TB - Tampa Bay is still a hot mess but Josh Freeman should have a great year and that means throwing the rock to Vince. Easily 1,400 yrds and 10 TDs this year.
RB Chris Johnson TEN - He just keeps falling, and falling, and falling... some of it is the bad play by the Titans in general, the rest is that CJ can be a head case. I think he bounces back this year and becomes a top 10 RB. Grab him up - he's a steal in three. I'm predicting 1400 yrds and 12 TDs.
RB Frank Gore SF - Love Frank and his story but the 49ers like to whip the ball around and Kaepernick wants to make his mark on the field even bigger this year. If Vernon Davis gets his head on right, Gore may not have as many opportunities as he has in the past. That being said, he'll still get 1200 yrds and 10+ TDs so he's a nice pickup.
WR Jordy Nelson GB - What's not to like? Aaron Rogers is a beast and Nelson is a great WR to have on your roster, especially if the guy you are playing has ARog. If he's still there, he should be a top pick in round three, 1,500 yards and 12 TDs.
That's it for round three. Next, we'll take a look at round four options.
Take Care. Good Luck. And if you are drafting before August 19th, you are just plain crazy!