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Monday, August 5, 2013

Kate's Fantasy Preview - 4th round draft picks

Next up:  Round 4. By now, you should have some combination of RB/RB, RB/QB, or RB/WR. If not, wanna join my league next year?  Just kidding... Your top three scorers are on the roster - but it's not time to start filling out position players. You should still be taking the best player on the board. This round can be tricky... don't fall into the standard traps. Who's left and how good is he? That's where I come in.

(Before I get into the players, keep in mind a couple things. First, I base these on a 12-team league. For scoring, assume RBs are the best option, 1 point for 10-yards either running, passing, or catching, and PPR. I also assume it's not a Keeper league. If you throw keepers into the mix, it can hose up selection order. Finally, I don't pay much attention to Bye Weeks. Yeah, you may have your top 2 or 3 players out the same week, but that is why you work the waiver wire. Also, I'd rather rack up a ton of points in the other 14 weeks than take a lesser player to score evenly all season long.)

Round Four.  OK so you have a #1 RB, and a top-tier QB or WR. Probably grabbed a second RB just to be safe. Now what? Here are my top 12 guys most likely to be available this round... (in no particular order)

QB Russell Wilson SEA - Was last year a fluke?  I don't think so. However, Seahawk fans counting on big numbers for Russ and Percy Harvin are very disappointed due to PH's injury. Russ should come back for his sophomore year and I expect 3,200+ yrds, 30 TDs, and a big drop in the number of INT's this year.

QB Colin Kaepernick SF - He wins the Super Bowl but really didn't have great fantasy numbers, partly because he only played 13 games (once he stole the starting job from Alex Smith). Adding Austin Collie will be a big help for his numbers this year. And a healthy Frank Gore catching throws in the backfield won't hurt either.

QB Matt Ryan ATL - He's a top five QB but people tend to forget about him. Once the RB / WR draft frenzy is over, people will be looking for a QB - grab Matty Ice if he's still there. Should have another 4,500 yrd / 30 TD season. While Roddy White is #1, a much-improved Julio Jones will really help Matty's numbers.

TE Rob Gronkowski - LET THE TE FLOODGATES OPEN! (EDIT - Clarification: Jimmy Graham goes in the 2nd round. Then there's a huge gap so this is the start of the run on TE's) Brady has to throw to somebody, and while he may be a goofball off the field, The Gronk is a beast in New England. Most likely the next TE off the board - unless you have one of those crazy managers who goes off early and, well, you know... grabs for the gusto in round 3.... (eyeroll)

TE Jason Witten DAL - Still awesome after all these years, Jason has the experience that Tony Romo is going to need this year. He's smart and stable. He'll get his yards and you'll be lucky to get him.

TE Tony Gonzalez ATL - An oldie but a goodie. What? Yeah, you heard me. TGonz still has it and you should be grabbing him up.

WR Wes Welker DEN - and also WR Eric Decker DEN - As Peyton Manning welcomes his newest target, most fantasy owners are shying away from Wes. Partly because there's also Eric to consider so it's hard to know which way to go. I say the "ERs"  (WelkER and DeckER") will be alternating, so as a 2nd WR option, either one of these guys is perfect... you just have to know which one is going to have the Hot Week.  Maybe you can call a psychic on that...

WR Danny Amendola NE - The Patriots roster has been cleared out to make way for Danny to be Brady's number one guy.... After being underutilized for years in St Louis, fantasy owners will just love the boost in stats Danny gets this year. I'm thinking 1,000 yrds and 6 TDs.

WR Torrey Smith BAL - Starting his third season as a Raven, I'm predicting a real breakout year for Torrey. Like over 1,000 yards and 12 TDs big. Flacco only has a couple of targets and Torrey has the speed to elude most DB's in the league.

WR Marques Colston NO - Coming back for his 8th season as a Saint (good lord I feel old) MC Grabber needs to step up to the next level. With Coach Payton returning, no more shenanigan's - run your routes, catch your balls, and score some TD's son!  He slid back in the depth chart, but by Week 1 he'll be back in line behind Lance Moore.

WR Greg Little CLE - Yeah. Fine. Call me a  homer. It's ok. GLittle has worked his butt of this off-season to stop dropping passes and be the type of receiver Brandon Weeden can count on. Adding Devone Bess to the Browns roster is also motivating him to get his work in and improve. I like him in round 4 if you already have another #1 receiver.

That's it for round four. Next time, we'll take a look at round five options.
Take Care. Good Luck. And if you are drafting before August 19th, you are just plain crazy!

Respectfully Submitted,
Cleveland Kate

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